A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
